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Malaysian palm oil is likely to trade between RM3,700 to RM4,500 a metric ton from now until June, as demand is expected to be buoyant during the Chinese Lunar New Year and the holy month of Ramadan, industry analyst Dorab Mistry said.
The benchmark palm oil contract for December delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained RM42, or 1.08%, to RM3,918 ringgit a metric ton as of 0604 GMT on Friday.
"Prices will begin a new bull market in Jan-March 25. The combination of Chinese New Year and Ramadan in the Jan-March quarter is bullish," said Mistry, a director of Indian consumer goods company Godrej International, in a presentation at industry conference Globoil in Mumbai on Friday.
Palm oil consumption tends to rise during the Chinese New Year festivities. Similarly, consumption of edible oils usually jumps during the holy month of Ramadan, due in late February and March next year, as Muslims gather for communal feasts to break their fast.
Demand for vegetable oils from the food and energy sectors is likely to grow by six million metric tons in 2024-25 mainly due to rising consumption in Brazil, India, Indonesia and the United States, Mistry said.
He added factors such as crude oil prices, overall climatic conditions and weather conditions in South America — a leading producer of soybeans — would weigh on palm oil prices.
Any move by India to reduce tariffs later this year or next year would be a key factor in determining palm oil prices, Mistry said.
India last week sharply raised the basic import tax on crude and refined edible oils by 20 percentage points to help protect farmers reeling from lower oilseed prices.
Despite the hike in import duties, India's edible oil consumption is set to grow at a pace of 2% to 3% as cooking oils remain affordable, Sanjeev Asthana, CEO at Patanjali Foods Ltd, a leading importer, told Reuters on Wednesday.
Mistry said US soyoil futures would continue to benefit from brisk biodiesel demand.
Source: theedgemalaysia.com